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Friday, October 16, 2009
NOKIA E 71
Description:Announced with the Nokia E66 on the 16th June 2008, this phone is the successor to the popular business oriented Nokia E61 and E61i. Styled very much like the highly touted Nokia E51, the Nokia E71 has a qwerty keypad like the E61i, but is packaged as a smaller, narrower, more stylish device. Available in two colours: grey or white steel colour as well. Work FlowImprove your work flow with the Nokia E71. Instant push email support delivers your messages the moment they are sent. Setup is simple and a dedicated email key and full QWERTY keyboard help your get your messages out. Dual mode functionality lets you switch between work and personal emails at a moments notice.
NOKIA N 95
WATCH MOBILE PHONE
Description:Watch Phone: Unique and delicate appearance, touch screen, BluetoothBand: GSM 900 /1800 /1900 MHz Main LCD: 1.3" INCH, TFT ,26 million colorDimensions:108*49*16.5MM Weight:100g Support Touch panel operation Integrated 1.3 M pixels CMOS build in camera, biggest out size 1280*1024 Ring tone: 64 Polyphonic ,support mp3??midi??wav??wma??amr Internal memory :64M Support MP4,U disk,WAP,GPRS,Video recordingBluetooth available(music, transmit )
WATCH MOBILE PHONE
Description:Watch Phone: Unique and delicate appearance, touch screen, BluetoothBand: GSM 900 /1800 /1900 MHz Main LCD: 1.3" INCH, TFT ,26 million colorDimensions:108*49*16.5MM Weight:100g Support Touch panel operation Integrated 1.3 M pixels CMOS build in camera, biggest out size 1280*1024 Ring tone: 64 Polyphonic ,support mp3??midi??wav??wma??amr Internal memory :64M Support MP4,U disk,WAP,GPRS,Video recordingBluetooth available(music, transmit )
Saturday, October 10, 2009
My Journey to Forex Success!
When I was growing up in my native New England, USA, my parents, like all parents of my generation, focused on the value of obtaining a college education, transitioning into a "good" job and retiring to a comfortable pension. So I went to school, got good grades and transitioned into a that "good" job. Then something happened, something my parents never prepared me for; I was climbing the corporate ladder and realized that my ladder was against the wrong wall! The economy crumbled and even though I was never downsized, I watched friend after friend get told their services were no longer needed. I listened while my friends struggled to come to grips with the anxiety layoffs create, the decision about work and family, and even more important the psychological damage that was being done as my friends discussed their options. This caused me to pause and reflect.
Do we have any control over our futures? That was the question. I came to the conclusion that working for others was turning over the power to control the outcome of our lives to our corporate managers. As glamorous as having a nice career seemed, we were essentially trading hours for dollars and in reality had only minor control over our future. It was then that I realized that I was never satisfied with my career, because in this Information Age we have less control over the outcome of our careers. Change was happening rapidly and it was time to take action. We needed to leverage ourselves or we were going to be leveraged by someone else! The world our parents lived in no longer existed. Pensions are dwindling, 401K's are only a partial solution and no one is training the personal financial skills that are going to be required to flourish in a global economy. That is when I decided to begin replacing my earned income with business and passive income. I decided to exploit 5 wealth vehicles to allow myself to re-gain that control and provide a degree of freedom for myself and my family. Trading currencies is on top of this list.
This blog will take you with me on my journey in leveraging the forex market. The forex market offers great leverage and opportunity to to succeed in any market conditions. There are countless sites that can explore the technical side of the forex market. However, this blog will share the softer side, the side that I have found that few people talk about in great depth, but have the greatest impact on your journey in becoming a successful trader, the mental and educational aspects of currency trading. I screen and publish the information I receive on FX TRADE CENTRAL. You can always email me direct!!!
Join me as my co-pilot in our journey to forex trading success!
Time to Build Your Storm Shelter
From the outside the United States and Europe appear to be on separate economic tracks. The U.S. is hard and fast a market-driven economy and Europe leans towards socialist governance. Economist will go on and on about the underlying conditions, but in its simplest form America lets the markets and business dictate the economic path (for the most part) and Europeans elects officials to dictate social welfare. Government retirement is about the same, only the delivery vehicles differ. The European governments rely on a high tax base to delivery retirement benefits to its citizens. America incentives come in the forms of business pension funds and tax-deferred savings plans (made popular by the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) of 1974 and to a lesser degree government retirement or social security (Great Depression Era reform and outdated).
This is what we are taught in school and at home!
This is all changing. The European form of social welfare worked well when 80% of the population was supporting 20% of retired citizens. You see this in France where students are actual demonstrating to keep the ‘status quoi’ workers benefits. Governments are recognizing that the current model will not hold far into the future. America is no different, except the deterioration can be seen in the collapsing corporate pension funds, United Airlines being the most infamous. IBM has also recently address there pension concerns by closing the pension to new employees and offering tax-deferred saving plan in its place.
Time to wake up and smell the coffee!
The economies are now globalizing and as change besets the western nations a new economic model is emerging. The economic models are changing and we need to change too! Change is inevitable. Change is also the enemy of retirement planning, but change must be embraced.
What now?
Education is the key. Financial education! We must learn financial skills and take personal responsibility for our financial well being. We must also incorporate financial education in our school systems. When I was in the 4th grade my class had a year long project to select stock on the American Stock Exchange and follow them throughout the year. I was 7 years old and had my first investment class. It was also my last financial lesson in the US educational system!
It is time to build your financial shelter.
Learn a financial skill that will take you forward and allow you to prosper in this rapidly emerging global economy. Don’t expect anyone to take care of you. Financial markets (Forex), real estate, and internet business are my choices. I use forex and my internet business for cash flow and real estate for wealth building. I cannot emphasize enough the importance of education. When I was younger I use to sell stereo equipment at a retail store. It would amaze me that people would spend 80% of their budget on the components and 20% on speakers. Ultimately it is the speakers that produce the sound you hear and should command the majority of your budget. Same thing is true about your financial education. No matter what happens, it is your knowledge that will allow you not only survive the changing economy, but to prosper!
I heard a story once that less than 1% of the world’s population controls 99% of the wealth. If you took all the money in the worlds and divided it up equally amongst the earth’s citizens than within a year that 1% would control 99% of the wealth again. Why? It is because the 1% have financial literacy. Isn’t it time we learn those financial skills!
Happy Trading!
Forex Going Mainstream
On first glance I was glad to see forex being introduced in a mainstream business publication. It also reinforced a psychology lesson I had back at my days at Arizona State University …
Think critically about what you read. Know the sources of your information and project yourself into views of the authors. After that form your opinion based on the facts. I think far too many people take things at face value!
The article was sounded a warning signal about trading the forex market. Addressing the symptoms (forex risk) without truly identifying the root cause (lack of investor education) in my opinion does a great disservice to the readers. That is why this blog and my sites (FX Trainer and FX Trade Central) are dedicated to forex education.
It is just like looking at the technicals while having an understanding of the effects of the fundamental. Learning to evaluate information from many angles without over-analyzing is a great skill to utilize in your trading.
Happy Trading!
Practice Makes Perfect
In my forex trading plan I always allot plenty of time for learning and practicing. I never employ a new forex strategy without study and practice in a demo account.
Do you think Tiger Woods learned how to hit a flop shot during his warm ups for the 2004 Masters and used it later that day to win the tournament? Not on your life! He has been practicing that shot for years and years on the practice range!
You must begin approaching your forex education like an athlete approaches preparing for an event. Spend the largest percentage of your time practicing new trading systems, so when the market favors the FX strategy you are ready to take advantage of the opportunity.
You must maximize your trading potential through practice. Unused potential is easily wasted. If you don’t think this is the case take a look at the 21 Day 3% Rule.
The human mind only retains 80% of something learned within just 3 days!
In only another 18 days after the learning event the human mind only retains 3% of the information!!!
Tiger Woods was quoted saying “it is funny that the more I practice the luckier I get.” As a forex trader we can learn a lot about preparations from following successful athletes.
Remember forex education and preparation is king!
Happy Trading!
The Complete Forex Trader
Focusing on the forex educational roadmap will bring together all the aspects of successful forex trading. This approach can be adapted to equity trading, real estate investment and pretty much any entrepreneurial activity you would like to take on!
Also, take a look at my required reading list. These books have been carefully selected to address all of the elements of the forex education roadmap. They are a mixture of classics and new material. FX Trade Central and FX Trainer are your portals to successful currency trading!
Continuous education is the cornerstone of any endeavor!
Keep the comments coming!
Happy Trading!
Failure is NOT an Option
90% of novice Forex traders fail!
That means that my chosen pursuit has a 10% success rate!
Wow! This was like a punch in the gut. I long suspected a high failure rate, but not THAT high! For those that know me, statistics like these get me thinking and asking that proverbial question … why?
It has got to be the common thread of success I see across the entrepreneurial world … education! I also surmise that people here about the opportunities in the forex market and get pretty excited.
After all those advantages are the reason I chose forex as one of my wealth vehicles!
Without forex knowledge the uneducated get seduced by greed, eventually are overrun by fear and destined to exit the forex trading all together with their tails between their legs.
By the way, these are the same people that will preach the risk of forex trading from the roof top and spout out about what a rip off the entire forex trading industry is for investors.
That is why I focus on forex education and personal self-mastery (discipline)!
The cornerstone of my website and FX newsletter is our Roadmap to Successful Forex Trading which places premium value on forex education and trading discipline. Visit FX Trade Central to learn more.
Happy Trading!
Over Trading the Forex Market
In addition to trading the forex market I also have a passion for playing golf. It seems that I continuously work through the same 4 mistakes, so much that I have long since been able to recognize by my ball flight which of these mistakes is creeping up on me again and apply a tested remedy.
I have taken this approach to my forex trading. One of my forex affliction is that I tend to overtrade the market.
To combat this need to be in the market all the time I have developed 2 key strategies:
#1 Take a break from trading when I had a big win or loss.
#2. Set rules for evaluating the market and entering trades.
Here is a sampling of my forex market evaluation rules:
Look at the current price behavior. Determine if the market is oversold or overbought.
Access overall forex market conditions. Look at long term and short term views. Is the market trending or range bound? Is the market trending short term within a long term range.
Determine where your currency price target is located for the respective ranges and time frames.
Determine your criterial for stopping the forex trade on both the profit and loss side.
Determine how much capital your are going to risk.
I have found that one of the most valuable tools is to be a member of a local trading group. This allows you to verbalize your trading actions and will confirm your trading decisions.
If you are evaluating currency trades alone then talk it though out loud.
Yeah, you may sound like a nut to those around you, but you will be a more profitable nut none the less!
For more insight into forex education and trading visit FX Trade Central.
Happy Trading!
Free Food Tomorrow
Let’s take a look at your trading self-esteem.
Next time this occurs, write down those negative thoughts in your forex trade journal. Currency trading (and any trading for that matter) is 90% mental and we should explore and embrace this side along with our pips and moving averages.
When we have a string of losing trades our trading self-esteem tends to take a real hit. The successful forex traders learn from their mistakes and move on.
Just look at a Hall of Fame baseball player. Most of the hitters in the baseball Hall of Fame are described as having a slightly greater than .300 batting average. That means that they are successful in getting a base hit 3 out of 10 times.
THAT’S A 30% SUCCESS RATE!!!
They failed to get on base 7 out of 10 times! Yet, they are considered the best in their profession.
They study the pitchers and evaluate every situation when they are at bat to maximize the probability for success.
When they succeed, they celebrate!
We as forex traders must learn to carry this same approach to our trading. We cannot treat our trading experiences like a sign hanging in the window of a restaurant saying “Free Food Tomorrow.”
When we come back the next day for our free meal the same sign is hanging in the window. Well, we will never receive that free meal. You will never feel satisfied.
You must learn self-satisfaction. You must become your own cheerleader. You must learn to celebrate your success, even if it is a losing trade! Take the positive aspects and expand them, because what we focus on expands!
Just like the baseball player we study the forex market, evaluate the trade and execute the trade with a belief of a successful outcome every time. Do we always succeed? No! But we know we can also be successful and profitable losing a high percentage of the time.
Trade and money management rules allow us to prosper.
The other day I was patently waiting for a trade set up with the USD/CAD. I waiting and the trade triggered. I had it planned and entered on the correct candle pattern, with the correct lot size and the correct stops.
Just before my plan said to tighten my stops the pair reversed and stopped me out at my predetermined exit.
I was happy! Why?
There is a big difference between a bad trade and a losing trade. I did everything correct according to my plan and the trade did not go my way.
I celebrated by giving myself a high five and began looking for the next trade. The law of averages will eventually work in my favor just like the baseball player.
Just like my freshman year in college when I was competing for a spot on the baseball team. I was really practicing well and had an assistant coach in my corner.
He convinced the manager to give me a chance in the next game. I got my chance and went 0 for 4 at the plate. I had a 0% success rate, but that did not tell the whole story. I hit 4 solid line drives that the other team caught for outs.
The next game I went 4 for 5 with 4 RBI’s because I had the belief that I was doing everything correct.
For those of you who are struggling to manage your losses try this.
Conduct a review of your trading journal and write on a 3X5 index card all those mistakes you have made in the past that you feel are creeping into your current trading decisions. Have this card next to you when evaluating your next trade.
I bet you that those mistakes and negative thoughts that are holding you back today will soon vanish and you will be trading in the correct frame of mind.
Embrace your mistakes and don’t beat yourself up! No more “I am not good enough to make money in forex” thinking.
Anything fully experienced will soon vanish!
Check out FX Trade Central for more exploration of trading psychology.
Special Forex Education Reports
I have just completed 2 special reports that are now available on my website. A lot of you readers seem to enjoy when I am ranting and raving about the global economy and how it relates to forex and trading.
Well I have taken those topics and created 2 FREE editorials.
Special Report #1: The Perfect Economic Storm
About the coming change to the global economy and steps we can take today to be prepared to not only survive, but to prosper!
Special Report #2: Forex and Your Retirement
Discusses why you should consider honing your forex education skills now and deploy FX trading to expand your portfolio well beyond your retirement date.
Just follow the link to FX Trade Central and sign up for ourand you will be included in the mailing for these revealing reports!
Happy Trading!
Be Aware of Your Trading Patterns
Your trading patterns can be the source of satisfaction in your trading performance or tremendous frustration in your inability to trade consitently, forex profit or loss. In fact, it's quite likely that you have both positive and negative patterns in your trading right now.
Let me share some of mine with you. I have very good trading preparation habits. I go through a routine like a golfer before every shot. This pattern has resulting in excellent entry and trade management practices.
Let me tell you about the dark side. I also have a habit of trying to measure myself against other traders. Mistake! Competition can kill your trading account.
I am working on correcting this habit in my trading, but I also recognize that in other entrepreneurial activities this is an asset.The root of most patterns lies in one’s individual belief system. These are translated into your personal expectation of what you can and cannot achieve.
Confidence also plays into the equation. If you believe that you cannot trade the forex market you will turn to internalize all losing trades and find yourself unable to pull the trigger on the trade. You will allow entry point after entry point pass.
Your account will not reflect your true talent; you get frustrated and join the chorus of all those people preaching the risky nature of forex!
Let’s look at some specific steps you can take to create new trading patterns that will improve your overall currency trading experience.
1. Note Your Current Trading Patterns – Keep a detailed record in your trading journal to document your patterns, both good and bad. Your trading journal shoul dnot oly contain the technicals. but any environmental factors that could impact your trading.
2. Stop Blaming – Learn to take personal responsibility for actions, treat the negatives as a lessoned learned and move on! There is no such thing as failure only feedback!
3. Visualize Your Desired Pattern – Act as if you are the best forex trader in the world! I see myself being calm and cool when discussing trades with my fellow forex traders.
4. Watch the Words You Use. They Define You! – My list of Forbidden Words.
Try (I will Do or I will not do.)
Can’t (I even took it out of my spell check dictionary!!!)
But (It is an “And” world!)
Hope (I replace with “know”)
Problem (I replace with “Challenge’)
If (I replace with “when”)
Why (I replace with “what” or “how”)
5. Put Some Distance Between Yourself and from Your Old Habits – They say you are the sum of the 5 people closet to you. If you want to be a successful forex trader then start hanging out with successful forex traders. If you don’t know any, then create a local forex trading club.
This is why I am a champion of FX Trainer Financial Services Inc. forex education methodology. Their goal is to create that community of successful forex traders!
6. Take Supportive Action – The key word is to take action! My dog (I have a beautiful Vizsla) developed a jumping problem when he greeted people. To address this undesirable pattern I replaced it with another command – sit! Then I give him a treat.
Once I recognize a pattern, deploy a strategy to change the pattern and succeed I am sure to reward myself with a round of golf. That’s my liver treat!
Remember that awareness, personal responsibility and action will be the key to identifying and developing sound forex trading practices!
FX Trade Central has identified personal self-mastery has a key destination in your forex education roadmap.
For more information on forex education visit FXTC’s course listing.
Happy Trading!
Emotional Rescue
There are many reasons for these abysmal stats: lack of discipline, lack of money management skills, and the. I think the reason for the poor success rate is that 90% of the traders can’t manage their emotions while trading. This is the demon I fight daily. Money management and discipline are the symptoms, but emotions are the root cause!
From day one of trading the currency markets I have heard every guru shouting at the top of their lungs to cut you r loses and let your profits run. Or that anyone can put on a trade, but it is the professional trader that knows when to exit a trade. It seems like a simple concept to let your profits run and take those profits when the market offers them up to us. But why can’t we get this right?
Emotions!!
The curse of all traders, the last and most difficult skill for us to overcome is to remove the emotions from our trading. Period!! Well I got news for you… you can’!! You, my friend, are a human being and thus an emotional being. OK, so we must trade emotional-less, but that is beyond the realm of most traders.
Letting emotions interfere with your trading can manifest in many ways. Let me just give you some examples of my past (and sometimes present transgressions):
Having the market retrace and return almost to my original entry point, exiting and having the market execute a classic continuation pattern to original target (a target that was selected in advance before the trade was executed)!
What do we do?
I have been following traders that focus solely on trading the news or other fundamental factors. Although this has some merit it won’t do squat for checking your emotions. Technical analysis should be your weapon of choice for keeping your emotions in check. Do you analysis before your trading session. Follow your trading plan (money management and strategy) as though your life depended upon it (your account balance certainly does!!). Visualize your trade execution like Tiger Woods does before every golf shot and above all, trust yourself! I repeat the following mantra before every trading session:
“I am the world’s most disciplined forex trader. I trade my plan and I plan my trade. I trade with confidence and decisiveness. If the reason for me to be in a trade no longer exists I will cut my losses or take profit without hesitation.”
I am an emotional person. It makes me feel alive, however when I trade I want to be a stone-cold, calculating pip capturing fool and leave the emotions for when I shank a drive into the water at the golf course.
Happy Trading!!
A Forex Trader’s Lifestyle
Take a look at your surroundings and make sure your lifestyle supports you being a successful Forex trader. Take in all the factors of success (how YOU define success) evaluate your factors to make sure your trading is:
Specific – Do you have specific trading goals and objectives? Do you have a trading plan? Ask yourself is your plan to general?
Measurable – Do you have systems in place to objectively measure your performance? If you don’t know your numbers then do you really have a trading business?
Has a Timeline – Do you have a timeline for which you are measuring your goals and objectives against?
Controllable – There are many aspects in Forex trading you can’t control, ensure that the areas your can control are firmly defined and managed with discipline.
Programmed Into Your Lifestyle – Are your Forex trading activities programmed and congruent with your lifestyle? Balance is important so make sure this passes the test!
Taken in Small Steps - This business is a marathon and not a sprint. Start off with small steps and build. The best practice trading principals do not change with account size.
Accountable – Forex trading (or any trading for that matter) can be such an isolated activity. Find ways to have others participate and hold you accountable for your goals. Make it real and measurable!
True Forex success is built through smart work and dedication. By establishing the trading lifestyle that best supports your personality will guarantee prolonged success. Remember, it is your Forex Journey. Be sure you enjoy the ride!
Happy Trading!!
Suddenly, It's a Bleak Midwinter for Housing and Lending
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Suddenly, It's a Bleak Midwinter for Housing and Lending
By Susan C. Walker, Elliott Wave International
January 7, 2008
In the bleak midwinter, Frosty wind made moan,Earth stood hard as iron, Water like a stone…(From "A Christmas Carol" by Christina Rossetti)
Shawn Colvin sings a beautiful song based on this poem by Christina Rossetti, reminding us of the bleakness of midwinter. That is exactly where the housing market seems to be now – facing its very own bleak midwinter of falling prices, rising mortgage rates and growing inventories.
The latest report of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index shows that the price of houses fell 6.7% in October, year over year. That is the largest year-to-year decline drop since April 1991.
Think of it – if you had bought a home for $300,000 in October 2006, it is now worth about $280,000. And suppose you just got a new job and need to move? You are going to have trouble selling it at that price, too, thanks to so many foreclosed homes on the market. One realtor in Phoenix explained to a Wall Street Journal reporter that local residents are now competing with foreclosed homes selling for $50,000 to $100,000 less than other houses on the market. "The sellers now are having to reduce their prices by 20% to 30% to compete," she says. (Wall Street Journal, "Pace of Decline in Home Prices Sets a Record," 12/27/07)
At a meeting of the New York Society of Security Analysts on January 7, U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said this about the U.S. economy: "We will likely have further indications of slower growth in the weeks and months ahead.''
Paulson and central bankers at the U.S. Federal Reserve recognize that they, too, face their own bleak financial midwinter. It's not just the mayhem brought on by the subprime mortgage debacle, the implosion of the housing market and the ensuing credit crunch; nor is it that the U.S. economy lurches toward a recession and hard times.
No, it is something bigger than that. Public opinion or social mood, as we call it here at Elliott Wave International, has shifted from positive to negative. When that happens, financial heroes find themselves falling from their pedestals onto frozen earth hard as iron.
Exhibit A - The headline of a recent article on Bloomberg: "Paulson Gets Diminishing Return with Bush, Like Powell, O'Neill" and the lead: "Henry Paulson escaped the Nixon White House with his reputation enhanced. He won't be so lucky this time around."
Exhibit B - The lead from a recent column by David Ignatius in the Washington Post:
"When airport rescue crews are worried that a damaged plane may have a crash landing, they sometimes spread the runway with foam to reduce the probability of fire on impact. That's what the Federal Reserve and other central banks are doing in pumping liquidity into severely damaged financial markets. Make no mistake: The central bankers' announcement Wednesday of a new coordinated effort to pump cash into the global financial system is a sign of their nervousness…."
Nervousness is in the air now. Investors are anxious about the markets; everyone is worried about the housing market.
Our Elliott Wave Financial Forecast December issue explains how housing starts (and stops) are intimately tied to recessions: "One key indicator of success in pre-dating economic downturns is housing starts, which are approaching the 1-million-a-month level that has preceded all recessions of the last 40 years."
And the Fed is nervous, too. So much so that it announced a credit giveaway with four other major central banks (the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank) in mid-December to try to bolster the financial system and the banks that keep it humming. The Fed reports that banks have been stepping up to its auction window each week to purchase $20 billion. Unfortunately for the banks, most of this "liquidity" isn't that liquid. It has to be paid back within 30 days, with interest of about 4.65%.
Editor's note: Elliott Wave International has agreed to make available to our readers a 2-1/2-page excerpt from Bob Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist in which he describes exactly how the Fed's latest effort to shore up banks' balance sheets has become "High Noon for the Fed's Credibility." Click here to read the Theorist excerpt.
Just how bleak is the future for central bankers if this recently implemented plan doesn't work? Bob Prechter explains in his just-published Theorist:
"Nevertheless, this is probably the single most important central-bank pronouncement yet. But it is not significant for the reasons people think. By far most people take such pronouncements at face value, presume that what the authorities promise will happen and reason from there. But the tremendous significance of this seismic engagement of the monetary jawbone is that if this announcement fails to restore confidence, central bankers' credibility will evaporate."
"At least that's the way historians will play it. But of course, the true causality, as elucidated by socionomics, is that an evaporation of confidence will make the central bankers' plans fail. The outcome is predicated on psychology."
The "socionomics" Prechter refers to is a new social science he has introduced that studies how humans behave in groups within contexts of uncertainty – where fluctuations in social mood motivate social actions. It explains that rather than an event happening that affects social mood (for example, falling home prices make people feel bad), what really happens is that social mood changes first from positive to negative and then lousy things happen (for example, unhappy people make home prices fall). If you can adopt this point of view, then you can see that, in poetic terms, we are fast approaching a bleak midwinter for the economy and the financial markets.
Susan C. Walker writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis company. She has been an associate editor with Inc. magazine, a newspaper writer and editor, an investor relations executive and a speechwriter for the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Her columns also appear regularly on FoxNews.com.
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Happy Trading!!
Why the Fed is such a Lousy Wizard of Oz
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Why the Fed is Such a Lousy Wizard of Oz
By Susan C. Walker, Elliott Wave InternationalSeptember 7, 2007
Central bankers who "follow the yellow brick road" end up in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, every Labor Day weekend for their annual symposium sponsored by – who else? – the Kansas City Fed. (Who can forget Judy Garland saying to her little dog, "Toto, I've got a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore," in the 1939 movie, The Wizard of Oz?)
The Jackson Hole Resort serves as the Federal Reserve's equivalent of the Emerald City, as Fed governors and presidents meet with central bankers and economists from around the world to discuss economic issues. This year, the symposium focused on housing and monetary policy. Usually, the Fed chairman kicks off the symposium and, this year, the new chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, did the honors. He closed his speech with these words:
"The interaction of housing, housing finance, and economic activity has for years been of central importance for understanding the behavior of the economy, and it will continue to be central to our thinking as we try to anticipate economic and financial developments."
Then came the other speeches. And it seems that some of the guests in Emerald City were waiting for their chance to pull back the curtain and prove that the Wonderful Wizard of Oz isn't such a wizard after all. Bloomberg reported that "Federal Reserve officials, wrestling with a housing recession that jeopardizes U.S. growth, got an earful from critics at a weekend retreat, arguing they should use regulation and interest rates to prevent asset-price bubbles."
Apparently, one academic paper presented at Jackson Hole graded the Fed an 'F' for the way it has handled the repercussions from the rise and fall of the housing market.
Truth be told, these folks are a little late to the table as critics of the Fed. We're glad they're joining us, but here's what they still haven't learned: It isn't because the Federal Reserve messes up by allowing credit, asset and stock bubbles to form that it's not a wizard. The Federal Reserve isn't a wizard for one particular reason that it doesn't want anybody to know – and that is that the Fed doesn't lead the financial markets, it follows them.
People everywhere want to believe in the Fed's wizardry. But all this talk about how the Fed will be able to help the U.S. economy and hold up the markets by cutting rates now is as much hooey as the Wizard of Oz promising Dorothy, the Scarecrow, the Tin Man and the Cowardly Lion that he could give them what they wanted: a return to Kansas, a brain, a heart, and courage. Because when the Fed does do something, it always comes after the markets have already made their moves.
If you don't believe it, you should look at one chart from the most recent Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. It compares the movements in the Fed Funds rate with the movements of the 3-month U.S. Treasury Bill Yield. What does it reveal? That the Fed has followed the T-Bill yield up and down every step of the way since 2000. And the interesting question becomes this: Since the T-bill yield has dropped nearly two points since February, how soon will the Fed cut its rate to follow the market's lead this time?
[Editor's note: You can see this chart and read the Special Section it appears in by accessing the free report, The Unwonderful Wizardry of the Fed.]
We've got our own brains, heart and courage here at Elliott Wave International, and we've used them to explain over and over again that putting faith in the Fed to turn around the markets and the economy is blind faith indeed.
"This blind faith in the Fed's power to hold up the economy and stocks epitomizes the following definition of magic offered by Teller of the illusionist and comedy team of Penn and Teller: a 'theatrical linking of a cause with an effect that has no basis in physical reality, but that – in our hearts – ought to be.'" [September 2007, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast]
Because, you see, what makes the markets move has less to do with what the unwizardly Fed does and more with changes in the mass psychology of all the people investing in those markets. The Elliott Wave Principle describes how bullish and bearish trends in the financial markets reflect changes in social mood, from positive to negative and back again. To extend the metaphor: The Fed can't affect social mood anymore than the Wonderful Wizard of Oz could change the direction of the wind that brought his hot air balloon to the Land of Oz in the first place.
As our EWI analysts write, "With respect to the timing of the Federal Reserve Board rate cuts, we need to reiterate one key point. The market, not the Fed, sets rates." Being able to understand this information puts you one step closer to clicking your ruby red shoes together and whispering those magic words: "There's no place like home." Once you land back in Kansas, your eyes will open, and you will see that an unwarranted faith in the Fed was just a bad dream.
Susan C. Walker writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis company. She has been an associate editor with Inc. magazine, a newspaper writer and editor, an investor relations executive and a speechwriter for the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Her columns also appear regularly on FoxNews.com.
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Happy Trading!!
How to Adopt the Traits of a Successful Trader
Here's a post by Heather Johnson that will serve you well in your trading – Enjoy!
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Not all Forex traders were cut from the same cloth, but the most successful investors do have several things in common. Whether you are a newcomer to trading or you are a seasoned pro who is trying to improve your game plan, the following suggestions may help you out. Below are five ways to evolve into a successful trader:
1. Become a lifelong student – Never stop learning about the business you are in. If you think you know everything about the Forex market, then think again. The successful trader is a lifelong student who constantly absorbs new information about the ever-evolving climate of Forex trading.
2. Be courageous – It's hard to overcome your fears when you are dealing with an unpredictable investment. Even if you are equipped with extensive knowledge about the market, you still have to put your money at risk every day. Reserve a small amount of apprehension (just enough to keep you sensible), but don't hesitate at every turn.
3. Hone your math skills – You are wading through a sea of mathematical information every day when you look over your charts. The most successful traders know how to take that large amount of information and pull out necessary information.
4. Be patient – Become a long-term investor and put all notions of overnight success to rest. You must adopt a stoic attitude, as you make the most informed decisions about your business and leave the rest to fate.
5. Learn to love trading – Maybe you already do love trading and that's why you are involved with Forex. However, many people are either too wrought with anxiety to enjoy it or merely see it as a job. If you don't like trading, don't trade. A great trader will love the roller coaster ride he/she is on.
Are the above suggestions obvious? Perhaps, but many of us take a wrong turn somewhere and need some simple advice to get us back on track. In order to stay on top of your game, you will need to constantly reinvent yourself, as there is no world that calls for flexibility more than the Forex market.
Trust Yourself
Beware the source and follow your system.
In these volatile times it is easy to get caught up in the hype provide by all the news media and analyst. It is natural to want to look for guidance. Remember to trust your system and more important trust yourself. You, after all, are the single largest determinant of your success.
Your approach should remain consistent, almost impervious to the events occurring because you follow your plan with discipline and ruthless detail to executing at optimum performance.
Be disciplined and follow your plan. If market conditions don’t suite your style – sit this one out until conditions provide your with your personal edge!
Happy Trading!!
Trust Yourself
Beware the source and follow your system.
In these volatile times it is easy to get caught up in the hype provide by all the news media and analyst. It is natural to want to look for guidance. Remember to trust your system and more important trust yourself. You, after all, are the single largest determinant of your success.
Your approach should remain consistent, almost impervious to the events occurring because you follow your plan with discipline and ruthless detail to executing at optimum performance.
Be disciplined and follow your plan. If market conditions don’t suite your style – sit this one out until conditions provide your with your personal edge!
Happy Trading!!
Do you have what it takes to become a successful Forex Trader?
1. You must be Passionate about what you do.
As Forex traders we all face one unique set of circumstances that does not exist in any other profession. We get rewarded for when we succeed and equally punished when we don’t! Could you image a corporate worker one quarter receiving a significant accomplishment bonus and the next quarter actually getting money taken from their paycheck for missing performance targets? Not on your life!
We do as Forex traders and that is why passion for what you do will carry you through the tough times that are part of your trading business. Asked yourself why you trade currencies and would you still do it if Forex were not potentially lucrative? Your answers will be quite revealing. You’ve got to feel your passion for trading!
2. You have to Apply Yourself and work hard at it.
I talk to so many people that enter into Forex trading with the aspiration of getting rich quick. Without putting the time and energy into really getting good at trading I see them jump from strategy to strategy looking for the goose that will lay the golden egg and eventually quitting while blaming everything else, except the true cause.
I got news for you – you are the goose and your Forex education is the golden egg. The magic has always resided with the magician and not some strategy. Work hard at trading and the rewards will eventually come your way. Remember what Tiger Woods said, “Funny, the harder I work the luckier I get.” Apply yourself as a trader and it will be no accident when your account begins to blossom.
3. You must Focus to really get good at what you do.
Now here is the hurdle most Forex traders struggle to get over. You have the passion and you are applying yourself to your trade, now focus and really get good at just at what you are doing. Be the expert to the experts at just that one thing. Become the master of a strategy or risk management methodologies. Really focus on getting good at it.
Stop jumping around or getting pulled from the last “latest and greatest” into the next “latest and greatest” and focus on one aspect of Forex trading and know it inside out. Know it strengths and weakness. Set your sights on becoming expert on just one aspect of trading and watch it spill over in all other aspects for your currency trading. This is the time to fail forward fast, use every setback as a learning opportunity that will propel you 3-steps ahead!
4. You must Push Yourself beyond the point everyone else might have quite.
In Forex Trading this is simple. Assume there is someone on the other side of your trade that is pushing themselves and sharpening their edge. To be successful you must you must do the same thing. Now is the time to examine your mental edge. Do you know the single most critical factor in any currency trade? It is you, the trader! Sharpening you mental edge is the most difficult aspect of trading, but also the most rewarding.
Start with your Forex education and gain the self-awareness necessary to maximize your strengths and suppress your weaknesses. Any expert will tell you that trading is 80% mental. It’s time to sharpen your trading to the razor’s edge and you do this through Forex education. A constant and never ending process that will become the cornerstone of your Forex experience.
5. You must, without wavering, be Determined and Persist to your objective.
You will fail. I can state that emphatically. However, you will not be defeated unless you allow your failures to control your trading. It is the old adage; failure is not falling of your horse, failure is refusing to get back on. Your success depends on your ability to dismiss the criticism, rejection, self-doubt and pressures associated with Forex trading.
Defining what is a winning trade, losing trade and bad trade will go a long way into developing you as a successful trader. Without the determination and persistence in all aspects of your trading life, obstacle will definitely appear closer and larger than they actually are.
Take a moment and assess yourself and your trading. Do you have the key elements to succeed? Which areas are presents development opportunities? When conducting a self-evaluation it is critical to be totally upfront and honest with yourself. After all, you will only be dishonest with yourself. One of the most interesting observations you can make is that all key success factors are interwoven. One factor supports the other. This is why your Forex education is a continuous journey of forex strategy, money management and self-mastery. Set these factors as your Forex education goals and take your currency trading to new heights.
Happy Trading!!
Bold 2009 Prediction for You
You will break your trading resolutions by the end of February.
- You will abandon your trading plan
- You will fall into the same destructive trading patterns you resolved to change
- Your account will earn the same or less than in 2008
True, statistics cover populations and not individual traders. The fact is, its traders who are outside of th enorm and trade with focused discipline that really achieve their financial goals. When is now the time to re-focus with discipline and dedication and really commit yourself to your trading plan?
Today is January 15, 2009 and February is just around the corner.
Let this be your wake-up call!
Be honest with yourself and focus with the discipline of a seasoned trader on staying true to your trading plan or risk becoming a statistic!
Happy "Disciplined" Trading!!
Complimentary eBook:
Download the full 60-page Deflation Survival eBook now
Part 2 of Elliott Wave International’s expansive NEW Deflation Survival eBook is online now. The free 60-page eBook is packed with Robert Prechter's most important teachings and warnings about deflation. This is one of the most valuable resources EWI has ever offered at no cost. Learn more below or download it now – for free.
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Greetings,
We contacted you earlier this week to tell you about an exciting, free 60-page eBook our friends at Elliott Wave International have just put together.
The new eBook is compiled from Bob Prechter’s most important teachings and warnings about deflation.
Much like Prechter’s wildly popular Independent Investor eBook, this new Deflation Survival eBook will transform the way you think – about inflation and deflation.
Most financial experts were caught completely of guard by the real estate top in 2005. Many thought the Dow Industrials index would sour well beyond its 14,000 peak. Others saw weakness in U.S. stocks but said the dollar would also crash and hyperinflation would immediately ensue.
Only ONE analyst, that we know of, made the following forecasts:
- Real estate, stocks and commodities would all top.
- A monumental credit crisis would reduce lending and borrowing around the world.
- The dollar would rally.
- Deflation would reign across almost all asset classes.
That analyst’s name is Robert Prechter.
Prechter – a man who’s made the arduous journey from fame to outcast and back – has scoured his complete writings on deflation and compiled the most important into a special 60-page Deflation Survival eBook.
Until today, most of the forecasts and advice in this still-prescient eBook have been released only to Prechter’s faithful subscribers. Now the 60-page Deflation Survival eBook can be yours for free.
Learn more about this unique opportunity by following the link belowTRADING THE DAILY CHARTS
Its not as aggressive and thrilling as trading on the shorter time frame but the result is about the same minus the headache. I'm beginning to like daily trading. I need to make decision once in a while and the rest of the time I just hold my position.
On a daily chart, the candlestick is much easier to read and pattern is much clearer. On 13th August I opened 3 position. 2 of which is still holding while 1 has been closed. At the moment all position are in profit.
Daily trading is not for everyone. It took me sometime to adjust on the requirements of daily trading, but once you are there you never look back.
Till next time, good luck everyone
BIG PLAYERS SEE ONLY BIG NUMBERS
This week I am going to talk about numbers only. Forex is after all based on numbers. Example, I have a long position on GBPUSD @ 1.4700 with a profit of 320 pips at the moment and still holding.
What I am going to say is big players only see big number. The do not see the last 2 digit. The last 2 digit is for scalpers. Big players only see the 1st 3 or 4 digit only. So if a bank wants to buy or hedge a currency they will give an instruction to buy at 1.47. Thats it. Simple yet people fails to see it.
So what happens at 1.47? The price will bounce of or hover around it but things arent always what they appear to be. What happen is price will have a range between 1.46 - 1.48. That is almost 200 pips wide range. Imagine what happen to your 50 or 100 pip SL?? Now you know why people lose money even though they have the right direction.
These big players have big money they dont mind to stand few hundreds negative pips coz in the end they will profit big time. What they do is they will have a standing order to trade at certain level. Because the total amount of order, the market cannot fill the order in 1 transaction and so price will hover or bounce of a certain level. This is where double top or bottom appear. Behind it is the action of filling orders by these big players.
Example EJ currently have a top of 1.34 and a bottom of 1.30. Big players are playing the game here. At the moment EJ is climbing and there is a big possibility that it will reach 1.34 again. I have a standing order to buy EJ at 1.30. If it hits there is a very big chance for 400 pips gain. Only time will tell.
WHAT FOREX IS NOT
Forex is not a quick rich scheme.
Forex is not easy even though my blog says so.
Forex is not a place for newbie
Forex is not something you can learn overnight
If you needed the money, dont put it in Forex. Seriously. Go somewhere else.
Forex is a journey, enjoy it.
There is no such thing as holy grail coz there is no perfection in this world. If perfection exist in this world it would be boring. No more room for improvement.
Forex is not rocket science. There is no right or wrong. There is only probability.
LWMA 55
For those of you who love to experiment, try putting LWMA 55 on a chart and see how price actually interact with the line. Its not magic but its a mathematical calculation.
Dont get me wrong, you may not be able to trade using MA 55 alone. Try putting LWMA 13 in there as well and remember they are not signal generators. Treat them as dynamic support and resistance.
Put it into a simple formula. If price > LWMA 13 & LWMA 55 = long. If price < LWMA 13 & LWMA 55 = short.
Try it, you may like what you find. Just needed to add in a filter to improve accuracy.
NEW PLACE, NEW SCHEDULE AND A NEW SYSTEM
In my quest to adapt my existing system to a new time constraint trading requirement, I accidently stumble onto a new system. Its a very simple system that has shown good result for the month of April and May at the moment.
Just to show you what I have stumble upon, here is a screen shot of my demo account that I have used to run the test. It doesn't show high accuracy but it shows a return of over 100% last month and a small return this month so far.
Here is the hard part. What if I say that I can actually have an accuracy of 100%. Meaning I can win all the time with this system. The numbers you see there is me using a demo account trading with limited time with no regards for the system rules.
Would it be nice to actually win all the time. I will keep you guys posted on the result by the end of this month. In the meantime I cannot be online as long as I like to. For my friends, I know my YM is not online for a long time but just leave a message and I will answer when I have the time.
NEW STRATEGY AND THE RESULT IS ..
The result as you see is superb. There are actually 2 part of testing. The early trades are done on a shorter time frame, 5 minute to be exact. The later part of testing is done on a longer time frame, 1 hour.
I must say the system looks promising on the longer time frame. On the shorter time, I just dont have the time to monitor the trades.
As of now the system is running on my live account. At the moment on 4th June my account is up 40%. Hopefully everything goes well and I will have good profit by end of the month. Will keep you inform on the result later.
TRADING THE DAILY CHARTS
Its not as aggressive and thrilling as trading on the shorter time frame but the result is about the same minus the headache. I'm beginning to like daily trading. I need to make decision once in a while and the rest of the time I just hold my position.
On a daily chart, the candlestick is much easier to read and pattern is much clearer. On 13th August I opened 3 position. 2 of which is still holding while 1 has been closed. At the moment all position are in profit.
Daily trading is not for everyone. It took me sometime to adjust on the requirements of daily trading, but once you are there you never look back.
Till next time, good luck everyone
DAILY TRADING - THERE IS NO SPOON
Trading the daily chart requires patience, lots of it. That is what most of us lack. Patience. If you look at the longer timeframe charts, you will see that price will stop or hover around certain areas. That is your key point. Always start or stop trading around these key point.
The next indicator I use is CCI. CCI alone is a bit of a headache. So I smooth it out with MA. With the MA, I can see the direction of trade clearly. People say MA is a lagging indicator but I dont want to be early going to a party. I like to enter when the party already started.
The last advice is, there is no such thing as holly grail. You just cannot win all the time. The best that we can do is try to win as much as possible and lose a little as possible. In the long run, it would be profitable enough to stay trading. Otherwise you need to find another business to run.
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- Invest in America through the EB-5 Immigrant Investor program, and
- Diversify risk and gain access to United States immigration benefits.
The EB-5 Immigrant Investor program was Congressionally approved into law and created by the United States
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a green card. Global Invest USA works with NobleOutReach, and through its private equity investment funds, is
focused on investing in profitable businesses along the coastal areas of the Gulf of Mexico in the United States ,
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Global Invest USA works with NobleOutReach to bring foreign Investors to the U.S.
Please contact us for further details .
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Department of Homeland Security.Forex Commentaries
Dollar Rises Despite Stock Gains Hans Nilsson - October 9th, 2009 The dollar rose on Friday, supported by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s comment last night that the Fed will tighten monetary policy “when the economic outlook improves sufficiently.” This is not a big surprise to the financial markets; however, in conjunction with White House economic adviser Larry Summers’ support for the dollar, it helped the US currency today. Summers said... |
Safe to Short Dollar? Hans Nilsson - October 8th, 2009 The dollar fell on Thursday as better-than-expected initial jobless claims indicated the US economy is slowly improving. The Bank of England and European Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rates at 0.50% and 1.00%, respectively, showing no signs of changing their monetary policies anytime soon... |
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